Water FractalTier 1
at Store Championship
decks
2
(25.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-1-2
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.4%
avg ELO +3.9 per match
expected value
55.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1524
· median 1524
· range 1491–1558
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1172
Q1 1305
Q3 1508
1584
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 25.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +2.0 |
| Water Genbu | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.4% | +5.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 12.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.0% | -1.9 |
